September
2004
The
Morning After
By Kim Haddow and Holly Minch
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John Kerry or George Bush? No matter who wins on Election
Day, we will promote progressive causes in a very different America
on November
3, 2004.
We may think we’re too focused on the election to worry about what comes
next. But planning can’t wait until after the victory party. Our opportunity
to be influential after the election starts now.
Progressive advocates need to think about ways to use the election year excitement
to build momentum toward long-term goals. We must consider the political and
organizational consequences and develop our “To Do” list now for
the immediate post-election period and through the first two quarters of 2005.
Consequences for Your Cause
What will it mean if President Bush or President Kerry are elected? The scenarios
for progressive groups may be a little different depending on who wins the White
House. Every organization should map out the potential national and local political
landscape.
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If Bush Wins…
We may all be tempted to apply for Canadian citizenship in the event that President
Bush wins his first election. A Bush victory means serious work for progressives.
Consider the political positioning of your organization: What can we do to
stave off four more years of disaster? If Bush is (re?) elected and you are
working
to reauthorize the Endangered Species Act, raise the minimum wage, or secure
voting rights for convicted felons—you may need to forget federal action
and work the grassroots and statehouses even harder. Now is the time for a
serious strategy re-assessment.
If Kerry Wins...
After the dancing in the streets and the effects of celebratory champagne have
worn off, we’ve still got work to do. Many progressives may be tempted
to go home and forget about politics for a while. But if we want to make a
Kerry win meaningful, we have to be strategic and smart starting November 3rd.
Progressive groups will have a real opportunity to redefine their political
positioning. We’ll all have to devise a plan to influence the new administration. How
can we position ourselves to see policy victories over the next four years? And
how fast do we need to mobilize? Kerry will be looking for administrative action
in the first 100 days to overturn damage done by the Bush administration, and
we should be ready to provide him with proposals on the issues that matter
to us.
A Kerry win will also mean some fundamental shifts in organizational thinking.
Progressive groups will need to evaluate their programs and shift from a defensive
posture to a proactive one. Now is the time to retool. Are there issues or campaigns
you want to launch in this new environment? This also applies to organizing and
messaging.
If No One Wins...
What if we experience another cliffhanger? Given how close the margins are expected
to be in many states, we could see recounts that drag on for days or weeks.
If you are working in a swing state where the election is contested and recounts
are hot, for heaven’s sake mobilize! Take a lesson from the 2000 Bush
campaign, which turned out supporters, credible talking heads, and staged rallies
from
day one of the Florida recount. Be vocal and visible in case of a recount in
your area. Work the media, who will undoubtedly descend upon the story like
bees to honey.
Beyond the White House
Of course the race for top dog is the key focus for many this year, but there
are a host of other races that will impact the work ahead.
Congressionally...
Progressive groups need to assess what the outcome of House or Senate elections
will mean for your issue. Is there potential to educate and develop a champion
for your cause? Now is the time to develop relationships with your Representatives.
What would the consequences be if the Democrats take the seats that they need
to become the majority party in the U.S. Senate? We should all be thinking about
progressive action that could be taken in the first session of the next Congress.
Statewide...
Eleven states have gubernatorial races this year, and the decisions in these
contests will be of critical importance to groups working on issues like education,
heath care, the environment, and budget issues.
Many progressive groups are fighting ballot initiative battles this year on issues
ranging from gay marriage to minimum wage. What will happen if your ballot referendum
is defeated? Do you go the ballot route again in the next election cycle or take
a different tack?
Locally...
What will the elections of local officials mean for your efforts? Again, this
is the time to develop relationships with your local elected officials and educate
them on your issues.
Judicially...
No matter who wins, there will be fierce fights over the next nominees to the
U.S. Supreme Court. With as many as four retirements expected after the election,
the High Court will be the big battleground. And with so much at stake—civil
liberties, personal rights, future presidential elections—expect groups
at both ends of the political spectrum to be pushing their favorite nominees.
Consequences for Your Organization
Every group will likely see organizational fallout from the elections. Consider
potential consequences for your organization in these areas:
Fundraising
Odds are strong that memberships and donations will drop, no matter who wins.
After Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, a range of progressive groups from
the environment to the pro-choice movement saw joining and giving plummet. The
public reasoned the threat to a woman’s right to choose and other causes
was gone with Clinton in the White House. A Kerry victory could have the same
consequences. Arguing that we need to flex our muscle and have our voices heard
in order to shape the agenda developed during the transition and enacted during
the first 100 days might help to keep donors energized.
If Bush is reelected, expect to find approximately half the country in a fetal
position and a deep depression. But no matter who wins, expect donors, who are
being solicited more aggressively than ever this cycle, to be tapped out. Get
your financial house in order. Will you have to scale back, delay hiring, begin
a whole new cycle of fundraising campaign and donor cultivation?
Burnout
Anticipate member and volunteer exhaustion. Even after a Kerry win, members
may want to regroup, have their holidays and then re-enter the civic arena.
Be ready
for them. Have campaigns and actions ready for volunteers to take. There will
still be a ton of work to do to increase the minimum wage—even if John
Kerry is living in the White House.
Expect members who have had their hopes raised and dashed by a Kerry defeat
not to be eager about volunteering at the grassroots level. (Unless you give
them
something new to do—after a decent mourning period.)
Landscape Shifts
The country will be an entirely new place come November 3, and it’s vital
that you get to know the new terrain. Assess the political landscape. Take stock
of public opinion. If you can afford it, invest in public opinion research on
your issue. If you can’t afford it, then pay close attention to post-election
polling.
Internally, your organization may also need to go through a period of reflection
and reinvention. If yours is one of the many groups for whom 2004 is the first
foray into electoral politics, take time to digest the experience. Figure out
how you’ll incorporate this new dimension into your ongoing work.
Post Election Tasks
Here’s a checklist to help guide your efforts:
• Reach out and touch your volunteers, donors, and members. Thank them
for their hard work. Lay out your vision for the next eight months.
•
Reach out to the media—make sure they know what the election outcome
means for your issue and organization. Don't disappear while the story is still
being told!
• Set up meetings with newly elected officials at all levels of government.
You cannot begin to build relationships too soon. We must effectively communicate
our values, visions and policy solutions
once they're elected—we can't stop when the election cycle does.
• Develop and publicly distribute legislative and administrative agenda. Most
state legislatures meet in the early spring—even though the election’s
over, grassroots lobbying, public education and legislative accountability opportunities
abound.
•Pay attention to who's on transition and personnel teams. These folks
expect to be lobbied. Work them relentlessly on behalf of an advocate or champion.
•Odds are, if you are a non-profit you have assets—volunteers, e-mail
lists, momentum. Don't waste the wonderful work that's being done this year.
Channel the enthusiasm of your volunteers
into to
new areas.
• Help build a progressive infrastructure.
All organizations that have participated in campaigns should digest and incorporate
what has been learned from electoral engagement into their ongoing work.
• Plan for a drop in income.
•Fundraise. There is evidence of a sea change in foundation and donor
thinking. Foundations that once refused to fund staff and other infrastructure
needs are now reconsidering—they too understand
the value of maintaining and building on the good work that's being done this
year.
• Work, hope and pray for the best. But be ready for the worst. Just in
case.
Kim Haddow and Holly Minch are editors of Loud
and Clear in an Election Year,
a guidebook for community advocates who want to make their voices heard in
the elections. The book is published by the SPIN Project and available at www.spinproject.org.
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